Mid North Coast set for cliffhanger election as Heise and Conaghan neck and neck

Independent candidate for Cowper Caz Heise has a razor-thin lead over Nationals MP Pat Conaghan, according to a recent poll from UComms.

The poll of 1080 voters was commissioned by Climate 200 and conducted between April 17 and 22. It showed Heise ahead with 50.9 percent of the two-candidate-preferred vote to Conaghan’s 49.1 percent. Within the 2.97 margin of error, this polling would make the race too close to call. 

Preferences to play a key role 

Preferences will be important this election, with a number of first preferences votes going to minor parties and Independents. 

The Greens candidate for Cowper, Wendy Firefly has given her second preference to Heise. 

Labor’s candidate for Cowper Greg Vigors’s How to Vote card is similar to Firefly’s. The Labor candidate also put independent Caz Heise as his second preference, followed by Firefly, then Legalise Cannabis Party candidate in fourth.

Despite Conaghan putting Pauline Hanson’s One Nation candidate Chris Walsh as his second preference, Walsh gave Conaghan fifth position on his How to Vote card. Conaghan’s third choice, Libertarian Paul Templeton, gave Conaghan fourth place on his card.

The uComms polling shows a continued trend towards Heise seen over the last few months. In March, a YouGov MRP model projected Heise to win the electorate, and a previous Climate 200-conducted poll found that, after preferences, Heise would win with 47.68 percent of the vote.

The age group numbers…

The uComms polling asked the question: “If a federal election were to be held today, who would receive your first preference?”. 

A significant number of people aged 65+ who responded to the poll said they would vote for Conaghan at 42.9 per cent. This age group of 65+ made up Conaghan’s strongest support group.

Heise received most support from the age group of 35-50 year olds at 30.8 per cent.

9.5 percent of respondents said they were “undecided” on who they would vote for.

Those undecided respondents were then asked who they might have a “slight lean” towards. When prompted, 21.3 percent said Conaghan, 20.6 percent chose the Greens, 14.9 percent picked One Nation and 14.6 percent leaned toward Caz Heise. 

Conaghan and Heise have faced off previously. In the 2022 election, the Nationals managed to hold on despite a 7.6 percent swing against Conaghan on first preference votes. After preferences were distributed Conaghan had 52.3 percent of the vote and Heise 47.7 percent.

Races tightening across the Mid North Coast

In Lyne, uComms polling also found the race tightening. A poll of 998 voters conducted between April 10-15 showed Nationals candidate Alison Penfold leading independent candidate Jeremy Miller by 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent on a two-candidate-preferred basis.  

The traditional National Party stronghold had a far greater gap between the candidates in February, with Penfold leading with a 59.5 percent to 40.5 percent lead.

Lyne is currently held by Nationals MP Dr. David Gillespie, who announced his retirement in October 2024.