As the Earth's temperature rises, cyclones are becoming less frequent, but the impacts are intensifying. 

We spoke with David Karoly, Emeritus Professor at the University of Melbourne and climate scientist, about why this is happening and what we can expect on the Mid North Coast.

Karoly said the last time the Mid North Coast was impacted by an ex-tropical cyclone similar to Alfred was in 1974, and that the heavy downpours and significant erosion experienced more than 50 years ago would no doubt occur again – with the overall devastation is likely to be more intense.

"It's a long time since this sort of system has reached the North Coast of New South Wales - you've got to be talking to someone's elderly parents or their grandparents for them to know and have experienced it,” the professor told the Mid North Coaster.

He said while ex-tropical cyclones like Alfred are expected to decrease in frequency, when they hit they’ll likely be more intense. This is due to the rise in ocean temperature and atmospheric temperatures, leading to more moisture in the atmosphere, causing an increase in extreme rainfall.

Then come the damaging winds, storm surges and big swells. And the flooding. All of which we’re experiencing first hand on the Mid North Coast.

Cyclone impact more intense as climate changes

We’re seeing significant beach erosion along the NSW East Coast as result of recent storms and swells.

“Climate change has lifted the sea level by more than 20cm over the last 50 years since the last ex-tropical storm hit,” Karoly said. “So it's the current stronger winds and the increased swell and a higher sea level all meaning bigger impacts on erosion.”

At the same time, we’re faced with flooding.

Karoly said the ocean temperatures off the Queensland and Northern NSW coast “are hotter … than they've ever been before”.

"We've seen record-high atmospheric temperatures in the spring and summer in Australia, which are also the result of rising climate pollution, not just in Australia, but globally.

“That moisture gets lifted up in the tropical cyclone and in the cloud systems forms rain, and that rain releases heat to increase and maintain the strength of the tropical cyclone.”

Humans to blame, but time to change

Karoly said increasing temperatures are down to human-induced climate change, via the burning of fossil fuels, which led to the high concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere: “[We had] record high emissions in 2024.”

Professor Karoly said the good news was that we know how to address the increase in extreme rainfall: by transitioning to renewable energy and stopping Australia from exporting coal and fossil gas, which contribute to higher emissions in other countries.

“It's not just Australia that needs to act — every country must reduce their emissions. Additionally, Australia must halt its fossil fuel exports because they exacerbate climate pollution around the world.”

Thumbnail image credit: Kempsey Shire Council